Most new businesses don’t fail because the idea was bad. They fail because the money ran out before the customers arrived, because winning each customer cost more than they paid, or because the owner didn’t have enough time or the right skills to get it off the ground.
How common is this? Official figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show that about half of new businesses close within five years. The UK picture is similar: the Office for National Statistics found that only around 42% of new businesses were still trading after five years.
The good news is that you can spot most of these problems before you spend a penny. That’s what this calculator is for.
What the simulator tells you
Enter a few details about your situation and you’ll get:
- Your likely time to first sale. A realistic range in weeks, based on your business model, skills and the hours you can give it.
- Your failure risk. Your chance of closing in the first year and within five years, compared with the average new business.
- Your cash runway. How many months your budget lasts, and whether it lasts long enough to reach your first sale.
- What’s driving your risk. Which factors work for you and which work against you.
- A personalised checklist. Practical steps to reduce your risk, with the most urgent ones flagged for your situation.
How to use it
- Pick your business model. Choose from drop shipping, e-commerce with stock, coaching, lead generation, micro-SaaS, a blog or affiliate site, or freelancing.
- Set your starting capital and choose £, $ or €.
- Set your weekly hours and your technical skill level.
- Tick the skills you already have. Skills that matter most for your chosen model are highlighted.
- Add your own numbers if you have them. Price, margin, cost per customer and monthly costs are pre-filled with typical figures, so you can skip this step and come back later.
Everything updates as you go, so try a few versions. See what happens if you put in five more hours a week, start with more savings, or switch to a different model. Comparing scenarios is where the simulator is most useful.
Your answers stay on your device. Nothing is sent to us, and you don’t need to sign up.