Business Viability Calculator: Will Your Business Idea Work?

Most new businesses don’t fail because the idea was bad. They fail because the money ran out before the customers arrived, because winning each customer cost more than they paid, or because the owner didn’t have enough time or the right skills to get it off the ground.

How common is this? Official figures from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics show that about half of new businesses close within five years. The UK picture is similar: the Office for National Statistics found that only around 42% of new businesses were still trading after five years.

The good news is that you can spot most of these problems before you spend a penny. That’s what this calculator is for.

What the simulator tells you

Enter a few details about your situation and you’ll get:

• Your likely time to first sale. A realistic range in weeks, based on your business model, skills and the hours you can give it.
• Your failure risk. Your chance of closing in the first year and within five years, compared with the average new business.
• Your cash runway. How many months your budget lasts, and whether it lasts long enough to reach your first sale.
• What’s driving your risk. Which factors work for you and which work against you.
• A personalised checklist. Practical steps to reduce your risk, with the most urgent ones flagged for your situation.

How to use it

1. Pick your business model. Choose from drop shipping, e-commerce with stock, coaching, lead generation, micro-SaaS, a blog or affiliate site, or freelancing.
2. Set your starting capital and choose £, $ or €.
3. Set your weekly hours and your technical skill level.
4. Tick the skills you already have. Skills that matter most for your chosen model are highlighted.
5. Add your own numbers if you have them. Price, margin, cost per customer and monthly costs are pre-filled with typical figures, so you can skip this step and come back later.

Everything updates as you go, so try a few versions. See what happens if you put in five more hours a week, start with more savings, or switch to a different model. Comparing scenarios is where the simulator is most useful.

Your answers stay on your device. Nothing is sent to us, and you don’t need to sign up.

How accurate is the Business Viability Calculator?

The Calculator starts from real survival data for new businesses, then adjusts it for your business model, skills, hours, budget and profit per sale. Those adjustments are planning estimates based on how each type of business typically performs, not guarantees. Use your results to compare options and find weak spots before you commit money, not as a precise prediction.

What percentage of new businesses fail?

In the UK, about 89% of new businesses survive their first year, but only around 42% are still trading after five years, according to the Office for National Statistics. US data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a similar pattern: about half of new businesses close within five years, and roughly two-thirds within ten.

What is the most common reason new businesses fail?

Running out of cash is the most common reason, and it usually comes from a combination of other problems. Customers cost too much to win, margins are too thin to cover costs, or sales take longer to arrive than expected. The Calculator checks each of these and shows which ones apply to you.

How long does it take to make your first sale online?

It depends heavily on the business model. Freelancing and coaching can bring in a first client within weeks, because you’re selling a skill you already have. An affiliate blog or a software product often takes many months, because you have to build traffic or a product first. Your skills and weekly hours make a big difference too, which is why the Calculator gives you a personal estimate.

How much money do I need to start an online business?

Some models need very little. Freelancing or coaching can start with a few hundred pounds for a website and basic tools. E-commerce with your own stock usually needs several thousand, because cash gets tied up in products before you sell them. The simulator shows the typical starting budget for each model and tells you if you’re below it.

What is customer acquisition cost, and why does it matter?

Customer acquisition cost (CAC) is what you spend, on average, to win one paying customer, for example through ads. If it’s higher than the profit you make on that customer, you lose money on every sale, and spending more on marketing only makes it worse. The Calculator works out the most you can afford to pay per customer and flags it if you’re close to that limit.

Can I run a business part-time?

Yes. Many successful online businesses start as side projects. The main trade-off is speed: fewer hours usually means a longer wait for your first sale, so your budget needs to last longer. Try different weekly hours in the simulator to see how much difference they make in your case.

Which online business model has the lowest risk?

Freelancing and coaching are usually the lowest-risk starting points, because they need little money upfront and can bring in income quickly. Drop shipping and affiliate sites tend to be riskier because of thin margins, reliance on ads, or dependence on search engines. The right choice also depends on your skills, so compare a few models in the Calculator using your own details.

Is my information saved or shared?

No. The Calculator runs entirely in your browser. Your answers and checklist ticks are saved only on your own device, so they’ll still be there if you come back, and nothing is sent to YOB247 or anyone else.

What should I do after using the Calculator?

Start with the items marked Priority in your checklist, because they address your biggest risks. Then use our other free tools to tighten your numbers. The profit margin calculator helps you set prices, and the ad spend ROI calculator shows whether your ads will pay for themselves.